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Dontschuk Advisory tracks and monitors the latest industry research, forecasts, commentary and news from around Australia and the rest of the world.
Australian Recovery?Macro Strategy update. View publication
Merril Lynch Economic CommentarySome Inconvenient TruthsInteresting up to date summary of the Global Financial Crisis and its impact on the adjustments we have yet to make in building the new world order. View publication
IMF Global Financial Stability ReportFinancial markets worldwide reflect ongoing deleveraging pressures amidst a deepening economic downturn. In response, balance sheets are being cut back through asset sales and the retiring of maturing credits. These actions have increased downward pressure on asset prices and reduced credit availability. Restoring financial sector functionality and confidence are necessary elements of economic recovery. However, more aggressive actions by both policymakers and market participants are needed to ensure that the necessary deleveraging process is less disorderly. A broad three-pronged approach—including liquidity provision, capital injections, and disposal of problem assets—should be implemented fully and quickly so as to encourage balance sheet cleansing. At the same time, international cooperation will be required to ensure the policy coherence and consistency needed to re-establish financial stability. View publication
RBA Minutes - Monetary Policy Meeting Dec 08Topics covered in the Monetary Policy Meeting of the BoardMelbourne - 2 December 2008 included International Economic Conditions, Domestic Economic Conditions, Financial Markets, Considerations for Monetary Policy and the reasons behind the recent 100 BP cut. View publication
ASX review of directors’ trading during Q3 08Review of directors’ trading during the“blackout” period – Q3 2008 View publication
BIS Quarterly Review, December 2008The Bank for International Settlementsis an international organisation which fosters international monetary and financial cooperation and serves as a bank for central banks. The BIS carries out research and analysis to contribute to the understanding of issues of core interest to the central bank community, to assist the organisation of meetings of Governors and other central bank officials and to provide analytical support to the activities of the various Basel-based committees.View publication
Monetary Transmission & the Yield Curve in a...Long-term nominal interest rates in a number of inflation-targeting small open economies have tended to be highly correlated with those of the United States. This observation has recently lent support to the view that the long end of the yield curve is determined abroad. We set up and estimate a micro-founded two-block small open economy model to study the co-movement of long-term nominal interest rates of different currencies. The expectations hypothesis together with uncovered interest rate parity, which both hold in our model, can account for much of the co-movement of interest rates observed in the data. View publication
Comparison of the US & Australian Housing MarketsThe unravelling of the sub-prime mortgage market in the United States over the past year has been associated with a major dislocation in financial markets that is still playing out. The developments in the sub-prime mortgage market should really be seen in the context of the broad-based re-pricing of risk that has occurred since last August. It has been the most obvious manifestation of this to the general public. View publication
RBA Feb 2008 Statement of Monetary PolicyThe Reserve Bank issues a Statement on Monetary Policy four times a year. These Statements assess current economic conditions and the prospects for inflation and output growth. These Statements have replaced the Semi-Annual Statements on Monetary Policy and the reports on the Economy and Financial Markets which were previously published by the Bank. View publication
Community Banking, Consolidation & Bank ValuationsBank of Queensland’s (BoQ) takeover offer for Bendigo Bank is notable for several reasons. First, it signals that the recent resurgence in takeover and merger activity in the Australian financial sector is likely to develop further. Second, it raises a number of questions about the value of alternative organizational structures (such as Bendigo’s community banking model and BoQ’s franchise model). Third, the outcomes of such a rationalization process and shifts in head office locations have implications for the future development of regional financial centres. View publication |